Shikha Saha
Lecturer
Specialization
Specialization
Numerical Analysis, Mathematical Modeling in Biology
Academic Biography
Contact
- Email: shikha@math.buet.ac.bd
All Publications |
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Amit Kumar Saha ,
Shikha Saha,
Chandra Nath Podder
Effect of awareness, quarantine and vaccination as control strategies on COVID-19 with Co-morbidity and Re-infection Elsevier, 29 September , 2022 Publication Type: Journal View Summary/Abstract , Publication Link
In this paper, a deterministic compartmental model is presented to assess the impact of
vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distance, awareness, face mask,
and quarantine) on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with co-morbidity and re-
infection. An expression for the basic reproduction number is then derived for this
model. Theoretical analysis shows that the model exhibits backward bifurcation phe-
nomenon when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. But for the case of no re-
infection, the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE)
when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, it is shown that in
the case of no re-infection, a unique endemic equilibrium point (EEP) of the model exists
which is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than
unity. From the global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we have identified mask
coverage, mask efficacy, vaccine coverage, vaccine efficacy, and contact rate as the most
influential parameters influencing the spread of COVID-19. Numerical simulation results
show that the use of effective vaccines with proper implementation of non-pharmaceutical
interventions could lead to the elimination of COVID-19 from the community. Numerical
simulations also suggest that the control strategy that ensures a continuous and effective
mass vaccination program is the most cost-effective control strategy. The study also shows
that in the presence of any co-morbidity and with the occurrence of re-infection, the
disease burden may increase
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